New DecisionPlanner Version Due January 15th!

We have been busy working on our new version of DecisionPlanner. Based in part on feedback from some of you, we have made it easier to enter information, provided insight earlier in the process, and offered powerful new tools that will help you arrive at the right solution for you. Look for our new new version on January 18, 2008!

The key features are:

• A streamlined entry process
• A new paired ranking feature that gives you valuable information early in the process
• A new pro / con evaluation tool
• Results displays and recommendations to improve the quality of your decision

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Decision by Consensus

Decisions by committee get a bad rap. Decisions by consensus are usually characterized as a lowest common denominator compromise. And, oftentimes that is true, but not always. And, it can be a time saver.

When you have a decision that involves multiple perspectives, and those perspectives have a vote in the decision, it’s important to understand their objectives and their viewpoints.

If the objective of the decision is not agreed upon or understood by all the decision’s perspectives, it is hard to imagine that they will come to a consensus on the most optimal solution. Everyone involved must thoroughly understand what is being decided, and the objective, or desired outcome, of that decision.

Many times, usually because people aren’t listening, the various stakeholders in a decision don’t really understand each other’s position. Each person is so busy selling his viewpoint that he doesn’t take the time to truly listen to other’s viewpoints. We’ve all been in meetings where an opinion has been oversold – everyone agrees with the speaker, but he keeps going on and on. One of the key messages in any sales training is the concept of shutting up and listening. It’s not hard to talk yourself out of a sale. Lots of people are uncomfortable with silence, but you must stop talking long enough to listen to others. You might just find that there is a consensus and you can proceed with the implementation of the group’s decision.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Fast & Easy Solutions to our Problems

The book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcom Gladwell speaks to the appeal of snap decisions made by our “unconscious computer”. As I mentioned in earlier posts, I believe a more deliberate, thorough approach leads to a better decision.

Why does the snap decision hold such appeal? Why do we have such a strong desire for a speedy outcome? Have we become lazy?

I think that the generation reared on television and movies (mine, for sure) has come to expect easy and fast solutions. No problem is so large that it can not be neatly resolved in 3 hours or less. Crimes are routinely solved in an hour, less if you take out the commercials. It’s very rare to watch meticulous analysis and planning in movies or television shows (how dull – I wouldn’t be entertained either). Even though adults know this is just entertainment, I believe it has an effect on how we view and approach decisions in our lives. It certainly has an effect on children. The entertainment industry tends to send contradictory messages. They downplay the negative effects of violence and crass behavior in the media. They say they merely reflect what is already out in society rather than influence behavior. However, they tell their customers a very different story. Their customers hear how incredibly effective advertising is in shaping our buying behavior. It seems to me that they can’t have it both ways. We expect things to be resolved quickly and easily – no work required – because we have been conditioned to expect that through our exposure to that behavior in our national babysitter – the media.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Another Book Review

I recently read a book entitled Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcom Gladwell. In it he proposes that using our intuition to make “snap decisions” is valid and these decisions often turns out more accurate than a more robust decision process. He provides some anecdotal evidence and studies that support his theory, but other books provide anecdotal evidence and studies that show that most bad decisions are a result of a hasty and faulty analysis. Obviously, I don’t agree with the premise that snap decisions are reliable.

• Many investors lose money. They rely on hunches and tips that “feel right”. Those that do their homework and proper analysis achieve better results.
• Our first impressions regarding our relationships are often all wrong. Why is the divorce rate so high if our intuition is so strong?

Gladwell makes the point that good judgment often supersedes detailed analysis (his example is people who are experts on art). That certainly seems to make sense. People get good judgment in a particular area due to intensive training and extensive experience. I maintain that it is not their intuition that guides them or their “unconscious computer” as he calls it, but their ability to do a thorough analysis “on the fly” due to their expertise. Most of us would have to perform a detailed analysis, with some tools (whether it be DecisionPlanner or a pen and paper), to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. Folks with extraordinary expertise do this without the tools and in a fraction of the time.

A couple of other observations Gladwell makes:

• Too much data is bad. “Analysis paralysis” is certainly to be avoided. Sometimes people just collect data to procrastinate. Often a lot of the data collected in the decision making process is just irrelevant. Those people with “good judgment” know, from experience, which data matters and therefore are able to arrive at a solution faster. Those of us without that expertise will have to decide which data matters, and we won’t always be right.
• Our prejudices and biases get in the way of effective decision making. Our prejudices can be eliminated or minimized with effort, and should be.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Expand Your Alternatives

Take some time to try and expand your list of alternatives. We have all heard the phrase “think outside the box”, but how do you do that. The book Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems by Ian Mitroff lists four categories to consider when thinking about your options: scientific / technical, existential / spiritual, interpersonal / social, and systemic.

Most of us only consider the first category because this is usually where the most obvious choices are found. It is, to use another cliché, where the “low hanging fruit” is found.

Spend time thinking about other aspects of your dilemma. A decision brought up in an earlier post will serve as an example. We moved recently. Initially, we thought we would rent for a short time while looking for a house to buy. Our alternatives were limited to homes listed for sale. Then we thought more about lifestyle questions. How do we really want to live (Existential / spiritual)? What groups of people and activities appeal to us (Interpersonal / social)? These questions not only influenced where we wanted to buy, but also led us to explore the virtues of long-term renting, buying two smaller residences, and even RV living (though this last option was soundly rejected). Through considering other aspects of our move and “thinking outside the traditional box”, we also expanded our list of alternatives.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Perspectives

More ideas from Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems by Ian Mitroff:

DecisionPlanner allows you to consider various perspectives in your decision making process. It probably seems obvious who, or what, the perspectives are for a decision, but often times we fail to consider people that might object, or disagree, with our preconceived hunch regarding our decision. These perspectives might give us the best insight in our quest to arrive at the right solution. Mitroff offers some suggestions for how to treat those perspectives (he calls them stakeholders):

“1. Never assume others will see a situation as you do.

2. Don’t respond to stakeholders as if their actions or demands are totally unreasonable; don’t respond to stakeholders in a way that leads them to act even more unreasonably; always ask what you can do to reduce, and not increase, the tension inherent in any situation.

3. Listen sincerely to your opponents by opening your mind and closing your mouth as much as possible.”

The bottom line is that we should not ignore people that may disagree with us. We should treat them with respect. And most importantly, we should listen and understand their positions. This doesn’t mean we have to agree with them, but if we want to arrive at the right decision, we should not dismiss their ideas without understanding them.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Solve the Right Problem = Make the Right Decision

I’m reading a book about problem solving and decision making called Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems by Ian Mitroff. He has a concept in the book he calls “solving the wrong problem precisely”. His premise is that because we do not take the time to adequately define the problem, or the decision to be made, we often end up solving the wrong problem, though the solution itself may be perfect.

He points out five strategies to avoid “solving the wrong problem precisely”:

• Pick the right stakeholders (perspectives in DecisionPlanner)
  
• Expand your options – look for more than a couple alternatives
  
• Phrase the problem correctly – always formulate at least two statements of the problem or decision from two different angles
  
• Expand the problem’s boundaries – attempt to see the big picture
  
• Be prepared to manage paradox

The book goes into detail on each of these 5 strategies. I’ll be writing more on each of them in this blog. DecisionPlanner can help you arrive at an optimum solution, but only you can do the upfront work in defining the problem to be solved, the decision to be made, precisely.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Critical Thinking

A big part of effective decision making involves the use of critical thinking. What is critical thinking? It is the ability to challenge your and other’s assumptions and biases.
Critical thinking is not really taught in our educational system very well. We are taught to memorize facts and feed them back. We’re never really taught how to question the assumptions we and others make. Some people do challenge assumptions; they are skeptical by nature. But most of us, unless the facts or ideas presented are truly outrageous, will accept an assumption without too much trouble.

The Socratic Method, from the Greek philosopher Socrates, used to be taught many years ago. It is still a part of legal education. It is learning through asking a series of questions until you arrive at some knowledge. It is kind of like a 4 year old constantly asking you “Why?” until you get to a point where you really can’t answer. That’s when the 4 year old may have sparked a challenge to one of your dearly held assumptions. Critical thinking is just that: asking both the right questions and enough questions to arrive at the truth.

When faced with an important problem or decision, it can be very valuable to question your underlying assumptions. For example, perhaps you are beginning the process of selecting a college. You just assume, because it is “what everyone does”, that you should go to college. However, your assumption may not be right for you – perhaps a trade school would be a better path for you. Or, if you decide to choose a house, perhaps your assumption that home ownership is appropriate because it’s the “American Dream” is not the path for you. Perhaps renting, or living on a boat is the right path for you. These ingrained assumptions, part of our social norms, are not often aggressively challenged.

A crucial part of the decision making process is stating the decision, or problem, correctly. DecisionPlanner asks questions and asks for your objectives to try and help you clarify the decision – its scope, timetable, rewards, and ramifications. Applying critical thinking during this part of the process, challenging your own assumptions, can make a big difference.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Paralysis by Analysis

There are a couple of common reasons for bad decisions. The most common reason is simply not enough time was spent analyzing and thinking about the problem. Another common reason is no decision is made at all (and we all know that no decision is really a decision) because of too much or endless analysis.

The phrase “paralysis by analysis” refers to a decision postponed indefinitely due to spending too my time collecting or analyzing information.

Sometimes the people responsible for the decision truly do not know what to do; there is a lot of information to go over and it does take a long time. Sometimes it’s because they are afraid to decide – it could be a “lose – lose” type of decision, all solutions being painful.

However, most of the time uncertainty is just rearing its ugly head. People want to be certain that the decision they are making is the correct one. You can never be 100% certain, but if you follow a tried and true method, and diligently work each of the steps, you can at least be certain you have covered all your bases.

DecisionPlanner helps you avoid analysis paralysis. If you carefully do each step, the software will do the analysis and make a recommendation. The factors (or decision criteria) can be defined specifically enough that the answer can be researched and put into DecisionPlanner. Most of the time, the answers to the factors can be defined so that there is no interpretation needed. This means that you spend your time researching the alternatives, but not analyzing the answers to death. That’s what DecisionPlanner does.

Analysis paralysis is a bad thing. Use a tool like DecisionPlanner to avoid it.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Why Use a Computer for help with decision making?

Because it works!

Perhaps you have noticed that we have sample decisions in DecisionPlanner. These exist so you can get an idea of how a decision looks in the system – and the reporting you can get once all the information is entered. I entered the Delivery Van sample earlier this week. I was trying to decide which delivery van to buy for a small business. I did real research into my three alternatives: Chevy Express, Ford Econoline, and the Dodge Sprinter. My gut feel was that the Dodge Sprinter would be my choice. Being a bit of a car geek, I liked it because it was the newest design – it looked cool. As I was entering the information into DecisionPlanner I felt it was the best choice too. It seemed that it had the right answer for each of my factors. Imagine my surprise when I ran the Alternative Recommendations Report and it showed me that the Chevy Express was my best choice. DecisionPlanner showed me that my first hunch isn’t always the right one and it also countered my emotional, geeky bias to go with the “cooler” vehicle.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Factors

Factors are the specific measures that you will use to determine which alternative is your best choice. It is important to identify all the factors relevant to your decision if you want to do a thorough job. While it may be tempting to say that you cannot have too many factors, that may not be true. Too many factors may make the decision process so overwhelming that you may not get through it. However, irrelevant factors have a way of exposing themselves pretty early in the process. They may not be truly measurable, or the information required may not be available.

It is also important to rank each factor. Factors are not equal in their importance. Your decision process must take this into account. An alternative may “fail” a particular factor, but that factor may be so low in terms of importance that it does not rule out that alternative.

The factors in our college example might include: campus resources, cost, distance from home, faculty contact, financial assistance, graduation rate, student body diversity, urban / rural, housing options, internships, odds of entry, pressure, religious affiliation, reputation, safety, and sports.

Each factor has an associated desired value. In DecisionPlanner, these values have four different formats: descriptive, numeric, scale and Yes / No.

An example of a descriptive factor might be “color”. If you want a red car, then the alternative’s value has to match the word “red”. Descriptive factors need not be exact matches however. Descriptive factors generally require more analysis than the other formats.

The number, or numeric, format is easy to understand. In the home buying example, you want 3 bedrooms – no more, no less. The alternative must match this number. The numeric format does allow more flexibility than that though – you can set a minimum, a maximum, and an expected value. If it falls in the range – it passes.

The scale is used to express a subjective opinion in a numeric fashion. Scales allow DecisionPlanner to compare the rating of an alternative to an ideal value for that factor, while still allowing for some analysis.

Finally, the Yes / No option is the simplest of all. Either that factor passes, or it doesn’t.

Factors are a very important part of the decision making process. Take the time to figure out which are the most important and you will not regret it.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Objectives

Objectives are the desired end results of your decision. What is your vision of your life after you have made this decision? What are the concrete things you would like to have, or have happen, after you make this decision? These objectives can help guide you in deciding what criteria is most important in your decision.

For example, if I am choosing a college, perhaps one of my objectives is an active music scene, in addition to a quality education. This would lead me to consider factors such as a venue for an “open mic night” or a music-oriented student dwelling. If you have thought about and identified your objectives as specifically as you can, you’ll have a better list of criteria to consider in your decision. The more relevant criteria, or factors, you have to evaluate will get you a more thorough analysis and reduce the uncertainty in your final decision.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Perspectives

Every decision is influenced by others. Sometimes it’s other people; sometimes it is other organizational entities, like departments in a corporation. Take other’s opinions into account in your decision making process. It is valuable information. It doesn’t mean that you should let others make the decision for you, but an effective decision maker takes other’s views into account, even when they conflict.

For example, if you are choosing a college it may be that one of your choices has a very active fraternity environment. You can tell DecisionPlanner that and rate it as a “Pro” for that alternative’s factor. However, your parent may look at that same fact and rate it a “Con”. It’s valuable to know.

The current version of DecisionPlanner allows you to identify your perspectives. And, through the Notes field, you can enter their opinions on your decision. A future version will allow you to enter their opinion by factor – enabling them to rate an alternative’s factor separately from your rating (if it’s a subjective opinion on a scale from 1 to 5, for example, and not a fact) and also indicating whether that factor’s value is a “Pro” or a “Con”.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Reducing Uncertainty

Why use a structured approach to decision making? Why use software to help you decide what to do?

The main benefit of any decision methodology is the reduction of uncertainty. Most people do not want the “system”, whether it is a method or a software program, to make the decision for them. They want reassurance that the decision they make is the right one. A method, such as DecisionPlanner, can walk you through the factors, the factor rankings, and the alternatives values to give you that reassurance that you have done a thorough job of analyzing the information available to you. DecisionPlanner does not decide for you. It shows you the best option based on the factors and actual alternative values you key into it.

Note that I said you could reduce the uncertainty in any decision with a thorough analysis, but I did not say that you could eliminate uncertainty. No method, or software, could possibly anticipate every variable and account for it. There will always be some degree of uncertainty, but through the use of a good method you can do your best to minimize it.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

The Four Questions

When you enter a decision in DecisionPlanner you are immediately shown these four questions:

• Why is this decision important?
• What are the rewards for making a good decision?
• What are the consequences of a bad decision?
• By when do you need to make this decision?

You should take the time to think about and answer these questions. Some decisions that appear to be obvious are not. It is important you understand exactly what you are trying to decide.

For example, my wife and I moved to a different state this summer. We figured we had to decide which house to buy. Then the subject of renting came up. Then the subject of buying an RV came up. So, the decision had changed. We thought it was a relatively “simple” matter of choosing a house and it changed into a discussion about lifestyle. Now the decision had broadened considerably.

Perhaps you think you have to decide which college to attend. Are you sure college is the only option? Perhaps a trade school might be more suitable, or enlisting in the military.

Take your time with these four very important questions. It is the foundation for everything else in the process. The rest of the work on your decision will be built on a solid understanding, which is essential to getting to the right conclusion.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Decision Making and Stress

Innate human approaches toward decision making and danger come from thousands of years of accumulated conditioning.

Psychologists tell us that stress is a problem in modern times due to our innate “fight or flight” approach to perceived danger. Adrenalin courses through our bodies as we prepare to do battle or run for our lives. The problem is that the dangers most of us face today are not “fight or flight” events. And for some, the “fight or flight” response is almost continuous. The almost constant adrenalin rush that modern life puts us through is not the way our bodies are supposed to work. The “fight or flight” response was supposed to be a relatively rare event, not a constant condition. The solution, according to the psychologists, is to “re-program” our reaction to perceived danger.

Similarly, our approach to decision making is based on the need to decide quickly and do something to avoid danger. Our ancestors made decisions quickly, with little information, to avoid great danger. It was a survival skill. However, today most of the significant decisions we face are not related to survival and are not served well by our innate “gut instinct” style of decision making. The solution is to use a thorough, structured process toward decision making that allows us to digest the enormous amount of information available to us in the modern age.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Making Decisions

Yoopersoft and DecisionPlanner exist because we want to help people make better decisions.

What makes it so difficult to make a good decision? One of the reasons is that we were never really taught how to make a good decision. Decision making and problem solving processes are not directly addressed in most schools.

Our culture values decisive and fast decision making. Make a decision with your gut and do it quickly. The media portrayal of decision making shows people making decisions on the fly – with no apparent analysis or time taken to ponder the various alternatives. This is not how effective people make good decisions.

A structured and thorough process (available from DecisionPlanner) is very valuable for the more important and significant decisions you face. It doesn’t have to be long and tedious – it can still be a quick process, but taking the time to use a structured approach will result in better decisions.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.