Another Book Review

I recently read a book entitled Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcom Gladwell. In it he proposes that using our intuition to make “snap decisions” is valid and these decisions often turns out more accurate than a more robust decision process. He provides some anecdotal evidence and studies that support his theory, but other books provide anecdotal evidence and studies that show that most bad decisions are a result of a hasty and faulty analysis. Obviously, I don’t agree with the premise that snap decisions are reliable.

• Many investors lose money. They rely on hunches and tips that “feel right”. Those that do their homework and proper analysis achieve better results.
• Our first impressions regarding our relationships are often all wrong. Why is the divorce rate so high if our intuition is so strong?

Gladwell makes the point that good judgment often supersedes detailed analysis (his example is people who are experts on art). That certainly seems to make sense. People get good judgment in a particular area due to intensive training and extensive experience. I maintain that it is not their intuition that guides them or their “unconscious computer” as he calls it, but their ability to do a thorough analysis “on the fly” due to their expertise. Most of us would have to perform a detailed analysis, with some tools (whether it be DecisionPlanner or a pen and paper), to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. Folks with extraordinary expertise do this without the tools and in a fraction of the time.

A couple of other observations Gladwell makes:

• Too much data is bad. “Analysis paralysis” is certainly to be avoided. Sometimes people just collect data to procrastinate. Often a lot of the data collected in the decision making process is just irrelevant. Those people with “good judgment” know, from experience, which data matters and therefore are able to arrive at a solution faster. Those of us without that expertise will have to decide which data matters, and we won’t always be right.
• Our prejudices and biases get in the way of effective decision making. Our prejudices can be eliminated or minimized with effort, and should be.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Expand Your Alternatives

Take some time to try and expand your list of alternatives. We have all heard the phrase “think outside the box”, but how do you do that. The book Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems by Ian Mitroff lists four categories to consider when thinking about your options: scientific / technical, existential / spiritual, interpersonal / social, and systemic.

Most of us only consider the first category because this is usually where the most obvious choices are found. It is, to use another cliché, where the “low hanging fruit” is found.

Spend time thinking about other aspects of your dilemma. A decision brought up in an earlier post will serve as an example. We moved recently. Initially, we thought we would rent for a short time while looking for a house to buy. Our alternatives were limited to homes listed for sale. Then we thought more about lifestyle questions. How do we really want to live (Existential / spiritual)? What groups of people and activities appeal to us (Interpersonal / social)? These questions not only influenced where we wanted to buy, but also led us to explore the virtues of long-term renting, buying two smaller residences, and even RV living (though this last option was soundly rejected). Through considering other aspects of our move and “thinking outside the traditional box”, we also expanded our list of alternatives.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Perspectives

More ideas from Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems by Ian Mitroff:

DecisionPlanner allows you to consider various perspectives in your decision making process. It probably seems obvious who, or what, the perspectives are for a decision, but often times we fail to consider people that might object, or disagree, with our preconceived hunch regarding our decision. These perspectives might give us the best insight in our quest to arrive at the right solution. Mitroff offers some suggestions for how to treat those perspectives (he calls them stakeholders):

“1. Never assume others will see a situation as you do.

2. Don’t respond to stakeholders as if their actions or demands are totally unreasonable; don’t respond to stakeholders in a way that leads them to act even more unreasonably; always ask what you can do to reduce, and not increase, the tension inherent in any situation.

3. Listen sincerely to your opponents by opening your mind and closing your mouth as much as possible.”

The bottom line is that we should not ignore people that may disagree with us. We should treat them with respect. And most importantly, we should listen and understand their positions. This doesn’t mean we have to agree with them, but if we want to arrive at the right decision, we should not dismiss their ideas without understanding them.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.

Solve the Right Problem = Make the Right Decision

I’m reading a book about problem solving and decision making called Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of Solving the Right Problems by Ian Mitroff. He has a concept in the book he calls “solving the wrong problem precisely”. His premise is that because we do not take the time to adequately define the problem, or the decision to be made, we often end up solving the wrong problem, though the solution itself may be perfect.

He points out five strategies to avoid “solving the wrong problem precisely”:

• Pick the right stakeholders (perspectives in DecisionPlanner)
  
• Expand your options – look for more than a couple alternatives
  
• Phrase the problem correctly – always formulate at least two statements of the problem or decision from two different angles
  
• Expand the problem’s boundaries – attempt to see the big picture
  
• Be prepared to manage paradox

The book goes into detail on each of these 5 strategies. I’ll be writing more on each of them in this blog. DecisionPlanner can help you arrive at an optimum solution, but only you can do the upfront work in defining the problem to be solved, the decision to be made, precisely.

Would you like some help with decision making? Try DecisionPlanner at www.yoopersoft.com.